A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
